⚡ LIGHTNING ROUND

The Shrewd ETH Setup

📉 Market Pulse: Ethereum is stuck in a giant range—and that’s the most dangerous place to trade. No clear trend = no clear edge.

🧠 Shrewd Insight: ETH’s weak yield (2%) and underperformance make it a poor bet until it proves strength. Don’t chase.

🔭 What I’m Watching: A clean breakout from the current price box, with volume confirmation and rotation into altcoins.

🚫 My Move: I’m sitting out. Alerts are set. When it breaks, I’ll act. Until then? Capital is staying safe and liquid.

WEEKLY WISDOM

INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY

Ethereum’s Big Box

Breakout or Coffin?

You asked me for my views on the state of Ethereum at this moment.

Short version?

It’s in a box — and I wouldn’t touch it until it breaks out.

Let me unpack that for you.

Recently I’ve been looking at the ETH chart and reminiscing on something that I learned the hard way in the early 2000s.

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq each traded sideways for 15 years back then. Wild riders, yes — but they all stayed in the same horse race. Everyone kept trying to “play the range,” or call the bottom.

And then — it was sudden — it broke out.

Clean. Violent. Relentless.

We all yelled, “It’s gone too far too fast,” but it didn’t care. It just kept going.

Ethereum is starting to feel like that to me.

It’s coiling up. Consolidating. Waiting.

The type of setup that either ignites to new highs… or implodes under its own pressure.

And when you are facing that sort of crossroads, here is the rule I have always obeyed:

Wait for the break. Then act.

Now, listen, I understand why people might be eager to jump in now. The temptation is always to “get in early.” But ETH has some issues, and they’re not only technical.

It’s been underperforming badly.

Bitcoin is up 26% this year. S&P’s up 8%. Nasdaq’s up 11%. Ethereum? Only 10%… and a measly 1% staking reward.

That’s not a high enough return for the risk you are taking.

If you are going to buy something that trades like a startup stock, you want upside. No bond-like yield and sideways price action.

And here’s what no one else on Crypto Twitter wants to say out loud:

Ethereum is beginning to show its age.

The economics shifted when they went from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake.

Yields got lower. Fees fell (good for users) but that, in turn, weakened demand for the token itself. And less ETH gets burned, which results in mild inflation, rather than deflation.

Not even the Dencun upgrade, which cheapened and quickened transactions, has done much to help the price. Sure, it made the tech better. But it lowered the usage metrics of ETH, which was bad for investor sentiment.

And then you’ve got competition.

Solana is eating Ethereum’s lunch. Siphoning activity off the main chain.”. Layer 2s are siphoning activity off the main chain. Why should I pay high fees on ETH when other chains are faster and cheaper?

Put in the fact that spot Bitcoin ETFs are recording inflows while Ethereum ETFs are getting a golf clap from Wall Street… and you have a token that’s hurting for a cause.

So, what am I doing?

I’m sitting tight.

I’ve got my alerts set. I will hold off on investing on such a breakout — but if it breaks out of this box with a good bit of conviction I’ll jump in and ride along. But until that time arrives, I’m not seeking to front-run anything.

Now don’t get me wrong — there is a bull case.

If Bitcoin chills and the crypto market hops into alts politely, ETH could be at the front of the line.

And should the spot ETH ETFs get some traction, or there’s a macro change (such as the Fed signaling cuts), we could see an end-of-year rally.

That’s when this thing might go vertical.

But again—that’s if it happens. Not when. We need confirmation.

On the downside, the bear case is pretty straightforward.

If ETH continues to lag… if Solana continues to ramp… if big capital continues to treat ETH as a “tech bet” and not “digital gold”… then we might see this sucker break down instead of up.

And frankly, that outcome feels just as possible at this moment.

So, no hero trades.

Set alerts. Keep your stop-losses tight. Stay patient.

That’s how I would approach it if I were starting anew.

Anyway, wanted to shoot you this note in case it’s something we’re both watching on chart.

Sometimes the best trade is a no trade. This may be one of those occasions.

But if it rips?

I’ll be ready. And I hope you are too.

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The content provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as specific advice for any specific individual. The information is prepared by knowledgeable individuals and is not written by certified tax professionals or investment advisors. For personalized advice tailored to your unique financial situation, consult with a qualified tax professional, financial advisor, or attorney.

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