⚡ LIGHTNING ROUND

📈 Growth still outpacing value → optimism rules

💸 Rising real yields = rotation risk

🕰 Being early is still wrong → timing matters

📊 QQQ/VTV ratio = your market pulse

✅ 5-minute check, once a month → no guessing

 
WEEKLY WISDOM

INVESTING TIPS & OPPORTUNITIES

When the Market Isn’t Broken—Yet

You weren’t wrong about growth.

You were early.

And early = wrong.

That’s the trap most investors fall into.

They’re “right” about where the market’s headed…

but they get the timing off, and it costs them just the same as being wrong.

That’s why it’s not enough to be “right” about the market.

You need a way to tell when the story changes beneath the surface.

The Hidden Split Driving Your Portfolio

Under the surface, the market is always split in two:

• Growth → companies priced for tomorrow’s cash.

• Value → companies priced for cash today.

The ratio between them (QQQ / VTV) acts like a market polygraph.

It tells you whether investors are still dreaming about the future,

or demanding certainty now.

Why This Ratio Matters

When growth outruns value, optimism is in charge.

That’s why we’ve seen tech-heavy indexes dominate the last few years.

But optimism is fragile.

A spike in real interest rates or sticky inflation,

and those far-off profits get discounted overnight.

That’s when the rotation comes fast

and it feels like the market is “broken.”

The Line in the Sand

Here’s how to stop guessing:

1. Pull up a QQQ/VTV chart.

2. Overlay the 200-day moving average.

3. Add 10-year real yields to your dashboard.

Your rule:

• Ratio above 200-DMA + flat/down real yields → growth still in charge.

• Ratio breaks below 200-DMA + real yields rising > +25 bps in a month → rotation into value is on.

It’s a 5-minute check, once a month.

Proof in the Data

When this setup triggered in past cycles,

value outperformed growth by double digits within 6–12 months.

Miss it, and you’re left holding the bag while wealth rotates away from you.

Catch it, and you stop donating returns to bad timing.

What the Wealthy Do

Wealthy investors don’t pray for CNBC to confirm a crash.

They monitor this ratio like a pulse.

When it tips, they tilt.

When it flips back, they reset.

They don’t chase feelings.

They follow rules.

Your Move Today

Don’t wait for the news to tell you the market’s broken.

Set one line in the sand.

• Check the QQQ/VTV ratio once a month.

• Compare it to the 200-day moving average.

• Glance at real yields.

If growth is still leading, know you’re riding optimism—high returns, but higher fragility.

If value starts to flip, that’s your signal to get defensive.

This takes 5 minutes.

No subscription. No hidden tools. Just discipline.

Because timing isn’t about predicting the future.

It’s about recognizing when the balance shifts.

Here’s what the market looks like right now:

Notice how growth is still leading

but one sharp move in rates could flip this line.

The market isn’t broken yet.

Growth is still in posture.

But the second that ratio tips,

you’ll already know.

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The content provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as specific advice for any specific individual. The information is prepared by knowledgeable individuals and is not written by certified tax professionals or investment advisors. For personalized advice tailored to your unique financial situation, consult with a qualified tax professional, financial advisor, or attorney.