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  • 💸 #0045 - When the Fed Wins, Barbell + Alts Win Bigger

💸 #0045 - When the Fed Wins, Barbell + Alts Win Bigger

The simple structure that thrives when the Fed beats inflation

When the Fed Wins, Barbell + Alts Win Bigger

WEEKLY WISDOM

“You can’t predict. You can prepare.”

Howard Marks

INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY

When the Fed Wins, Barbell + Alts Win Bigger

In Issue #0043, you learned how the barbell strategy helps you weather fragile markets and also ride growth cycles.

Today we take that one step further. The safe part of the barbell is now paying you real returns.

The risky part is opening doors that most investors haven’t explored yet.

Why this moment matters

Right now, cash and short-term Treasuries pay more than essentials inflation. That means your downside is protected in a way we haven’t seen in decades.

Meanwhile, alternative investments offer true upside opportunities:

  • Private credit delivering 8–10% yields

  • Niche ETFs such as royalties and structured credit are now accessible in retirement accounts.

  • Early AI and automation ventures reachable without needing hedge fund access

You can have both safety and growth without compromise.

The Fed’s silent boost

If the Fed holds rates and essentials inflation stays below 3%, your safe bucket of money markets and short bills grows faster than the cost of living.

That frees your “optionality” side. Make that slice count with:

  • Private credit funds

  • Quality venture debt

  • Early-stage AI or automation equity

  • Select commodities with asymmetric upside

Why this feels different

Most investors are torn:

  • Too much exposure to public equities, hoping rates fall

  • Or frozen in cash, afraid they’ll miss the next boom

A balanced barbell cuts through both fears.

Consider this line from Nassim Taleb:

“It’s much better to put 80% of your money risk‑free, and 20% in speculative bets. Much more robust that way.”

When the Fed is beating inflation, your safety net is actually earning.

The takeaway

In this environment, many parts of the market struggle.

But safe yield plus smart alts thrive.

Keep most of your money safe.

Let a small slice reach for the next cycle.

You don’t need to stress. You don’t need predictions. You just need the right structure.

P.S. If you’d like us to break down your portfolio or ask a question, submit yours here: https://shrewdinvestor.com/roastme

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The content provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as specific advice for any specific individual. The information is prepared by knowledgeable individuals and is not written by certified tax professionals or investment advisors. For personalized advice tailored to your unique financial situation, consult with a qualified tax professional, financial advisor, or attorney.

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